Are Swedish climate goals on the right track?
The answer to the question comes down to how the global future emission space - the so-called carbon budget - is distributed between countries and how the Paris Agreement's temperature targets, principles of justice and sustainable development are interpreted.
At present, the countries have not agreed on a method for how this should be done and the interpretations that are made are basically political considerations.
We have calculated the Swedish emissions based on some of the distribution methods that have been proposed, for example equal emissions per capita and equal cumulative emissions from a historical perspective (historical responsibility).
Sweden's climate goals are also in line with a historical responsibility that begins sometime in the 1990s. But if Sweden takes responsibility for emissions further back in time, it would mean an additional condition in addition to the current target.
We conclude that Sweden's current territorial climate targets are compatible with the 1.5 degree target, given that the global emission space is distributed evenly per person and year.
In the debate on these issues, arguments have been put forward of the nature that current Swedish climate goals are not in line with science. We want to emphasize that science cannot be used to determine which distribution principle is right.
The level of ambition that individual countries should strive for is basically an ethical and political issue and not an issue that science can decide.
For further questions, please contact:
Johannes Morfeldt, e-mail: johannes.morfeldt@chalmers.se